Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 118,267
2 South Dakota 107,469
3 Iowa 85,175
4 Wisconsin 84,904
5 Nebraska 81,377
6 Utah 78,847
7 Rhode Island 75,735
8 Tennessee 75,432
9 Idaho 73,566
10 Wyoming 72,772
11 Montana 72,471
12 Illinois 71,569
13 Kansas 71,373
14 Minnesota 70,814
15 Indiana 69,980
16 Arkansas 67,302
17 Nevada 66,943
18 Oklahoma 66,574
19 Alabama 66,249
20 Mississippi 65,688
21 Missouri 63,627
22 Arizona 63,382
23 New Mexico 62,383
24 Louisiana 61,792
25 Alaska 59,874
26 Florida 56,457
27 Texas 55,529
28 Kentucky 55,340
29 Colorado 54,302
30 Ohio 53,841
31 Georgia 53,807
32 South Carolina 53,553
33 Delaware 52,431
34 Michigan 50,111
35 New Jersey 49,275
36 California 48,923
37 Massachusetts 47,497
38 Connecticut 46,946
39 North Carolina 46,196
40 Pennsylvania 44,478
41 New York 44,251
42 Maryland 41,905
43 West Virginia 40,921
44 District of Columbia 37,888
45 Virginia 36,423
46 Puerto Rico 32,083
47 Washington 30,288
48 New Hampshire 27,497
49 Oregon 24,629
50 Hawaii 14,424
51 Maine 14,346
52 Vermont 10,471

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Tennessee 1,212
2 California 1,041
3 Oklahoma 983
4 Arizona 792
5 Rhode Island 761
6 Indiana 747
7 Ohio 669
8 Delaware 666
9 Nevada 666
10 West Virginia 666
11 Pennsylvania 650
12 Utah 646
13 Arkansas 628
14 Alabama 621
15 Massachusetts 602
16 New Hampshire 595
17 Mississippi 569
18 South Carolina 560
19 Idaho 553
20 New Mexico 525
21 North Carolina 518
22 Kentucky 514
23 New York 493
24 Kansas 490
25 South Dakota 490
26 Illinois 485
27 Florida 482
28 New Jersey 470
29 Georgia 461
30 Wisconsin 457
31 Missouri 452
32 Virginia 449
33 Texas 439
34 Minnesota 438
35 Wyoming 437
36 Montana 436
37 Connecticut 429
38 Iowa 423
39 Colorado 410
40 Nebraska 404
41 Maryland 359
42 Louisiana 346
43 Alaska 304
44 Michigan 304
45 District of Columbia 300
46 Puerto Rico 283
47 Oregon 282
48 Washington 264
49 North Dakota 246
50 Maine 235
51 Vermont 155
52 Hawaii 114

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,051
2 New York 1,858
3 Massachusetts 1,706
4 North Dakota 1,625
5 Connecticut 1,592
6 Rhode Island 1,576
7 South Dakota 1,561
8 Louisiana 1,528
9 Mississippi 1,482
10 Illinois 1,304
11 Michigan 1,216
12 Iowa 1,137
13 Indiana 1,104
14 Arizona 1,095
15 Pennsylvania 1,095
16 Arkansas 1,091
17 District of Columbia 1,051
18 New Mexico 1,039
19 South Carolina 963
20 Florida 962
21 Georgia 948
22 Nevada 909
23 Maryland 904
24 Texas 902
25 Alabama 895
26 Delaware 894
27 Tennessee 889
28 Minnesota 874
29 Missouri 862
30 Kansas 840
31 Montana 824
32 Wisconsin 816
33 Nebraska 790
34 Colorado 769
35 Idaho 730
36 Ohio 694
37 West Virginia 629
38 Wyoming 606
39 Kentucky 604
40 North Carolina 599
41 California 581
42 Oklahoma 560
43 Virginia 545
44 New Hampshire 482
45 Puerto Rico 432
46 Washington 418
47 Utah 362
48 Oregon 320
49 Alaska 240
50 Maine 217
51 Hawaii 197
52 Vermont 177

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 South Dakota 19
2 Arkansas 17
3 Iowa 14
4 Rhode Island 14
5 Kansas 12
6 Michigan 9
7 Pennsylvania 9
8 Connecticut 8
9 Illinois 8
10 Indiana 8
11 Louisiana 8
12 Minnesota 8
13 Montana 8
14 New Mexico 8
15 Tennessee 8
16 Arizona 7
17 Massachusetts 7
18 Nevada 7
19 West Virginia 7
20 Alabama 6
21 Colorado 6
22 District of Columbia 6
23 Kentucky 6
24 Maryland 6
25 Mississippi 6
26 Missouri 6
27 Nebraska 6
28 New York 6
29 Texas 6
30 Wisconsin 6
31 Delaware 5
32 Puerto Rico 5
33 South Carolina 5
34 California 4
35 Florida 4
36 Idaho 4
37 New Hampshire 4
38 Ohio 4
39 Oklahoma 4
40 New Jersey 3
41 North Carolina 3
42 North Dakota 3
43 Oregon 3
44 Maine 2
45 Utah 2
46 Vermont 2
47 Virginia 2
48 Georgia 1
49 Alaska 0
50 Hawaii 0
51 Washington 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 260,353 1 99
Norton Kansas 214,699 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 210,458 3 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 209,535 4 99
Dewey South Dakota 209,097 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 90,049 374 88
Richland South Carolina 58,697 1521 51
York South Carolina 47,861 2090 33
Orange California 41,103 2376 24
Pierce Washington 27,683 2808 10

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,587 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,452 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,213 4 99
Foster North Dakota 5,919 5 99
Richland South Carolina 774 1711 45
Davidson Tennessee 746 1768 43
York South Carolina 605 2039 35
Orange California 560 2125 32
Pierce Washington 337 2568 18

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons